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Correlation
of values
-75%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~57% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-75%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -71%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
1,360
Normalized
533
1,360
Prepared
533
1,360
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
56.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10-Year Real Interest Rate today line up with PPI: All Commodities 18 months from now?"
514 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
829
A: 1 / B: 828
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-20.4610
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
209.5343
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ppiaco_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y