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PM vs FFederal DebtPhilip Morris International Inc. (PM) vs Federal Debt
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Federal Debt moves ~1 month before PM
Watch Federal Debt for an early read on PM.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-68% → +21%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
240
Normalized
1,254
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
-1 month
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Federal Debt shifted 1 month later. Reads: "Does Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) today line up with Federal Debt 1 month ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-1 month
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)
PM
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0374
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0189
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdebtn_stock-pm_monthly_5y