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Pultegroup, Inc. (PHM) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-48%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
60
These move in the same direction about 32% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-66% → -26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,288
Normalized
1,254
1,288
Prepared
61
1,288
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-55%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-23%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,229
A: 1 / B: 1228
Series A
Pultegroup, Inc. (PHM)
PHM
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3474
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0147
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-phm_monthly_5y