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Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs Median Home Price
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
PGR moves ~8 months before Median Home Price
Watch PGR for an early read on Median Home Price.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-71% → +13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
253
Normalized
1,255
253
Prepared
61
253
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
+8 months
Correlation at this shift
+43%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Median Home Price shifted 8 months earlier. Reads: "Does Progressive Corporation (PGR) today line up with Median Home Price 8 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 months
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
276
A: 42 / B: 234
Series A
Progressive Corporation (PGR)
PGR
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Median Home Price
MSPUS
FRED · 253 raw → 253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0932
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0051
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-mspus_stock-pgr_monthly_5y