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PGR vs FFederal DebtProgressive Corporation (PGR) vs Federal Debt
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move opposite each other about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
PGR moves ~7 months before Federal Debt
Watch PGR for an early read on Federal Debt.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
70.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-70% → +19%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
240
Normalized
1,255
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+32% stronger than no-shift baseline
Federal Debt shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Progressive Corporation (PGR) today line up with Federal Debt 7 months from now?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
Progressive Corporation (PGR)
PGR
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0200
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdebtn_stock-pgr_monthly_5y