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Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs Potential GDP
Correlation
of % moves
+48%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
20
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Potential GDP moves ~9 months before PGR
Watch Potential GDP for an early read on PGR.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+3% → +77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
20 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
352
Normalized
1,255
352
Prepared
61
352
Aligned
20
20
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
20
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -9 to 9 months.
Selected shift
-9 months
Correlation at this shift
-75%
+27% stronger than no-shift baseline
Potential GDP shifted 9 months later. Reads: "Does Progressive Corporation (PGR) today line up with Potential GDP 9 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-9 months
-75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
373
A: 41 / B: 332
Series A
Progressive Corporation (PGR)
PGR
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0023
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdppot_stock-pgr_monthly_5y