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Progressive Corporation (PGR) vs Dow Jones Industrial Average
Correlation
of % moves
+36%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
1,254
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+31% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
2,514
Normalized
1,255
2,514
Prepared
1,255
2,514
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,254
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,253 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
96 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
80 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
73 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,261
A: 1 / B: 1260
Series A
Progressive Corporation (PGR)
PGR
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,514 raw → 2,514 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-djia_stock-pgr_daily_5y