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Pfizer Inc. (PFE) vs M2 Money Supply
Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
PFE moves ~16 months before M2 Money Supply
Watch PFE for an early read on M2 Money Supply.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+4% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
60
807
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-60%
+30% stronger than no-shift baseline
M2 Money Supply shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Pfizer Inc. (PFE) today line up with M2 Money Supply 16 months from now?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+70%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
751
A: 2 / B: 749
Series A
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
PFE
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
M2 Money Supply
M2SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0220
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-m2sl_stock-pfe_monthly_5y