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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
607
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+48% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
607 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
607
Normalized
799
607
Prepared
799
607
Aligned
607
607
Invalid removed
R²(i)
29%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
607
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
607 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
192
A: 192 / B: 0
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 607 raw → 607 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
35
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0032
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.7012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y