Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-09
279
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
279 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
795
5,837
Normalized
795
5,837
Prepared
795
1,218
Aligned
279
279
Invalid removed
R²(i)
28.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
279
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+54%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
279 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+33%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,455
A: 516 / B: 939
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 795 raw → 795 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,837 raw → 1,218 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0007
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0716
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 days ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-t5yie_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.