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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
5,862
Normalized
796
5,862
Prepared
796
282
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
99 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
518
A: 516 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6649
Linear regression intercept.
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