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Correlation
of values
-31%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
602
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~17 months before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Building Permits for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -23%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
602 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,564
799
Normalized
12,564
799
Prepared
604
799
Aligned
602
602
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
602
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Building Permits 17 months ago?"
585 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
199
A: 2 / B: 197
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,564 raw → 604 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
35
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-124.8726
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1497.3666
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y