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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
389
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
1,692
Normalized
796
1,692
Prepared
796
390
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
389 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
63 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
408
A: 407 / B: 1
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Sign agreement
36.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0009
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-permit_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y