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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
119
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
+21% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
796
2,513
Normalized
796
2,513
Prepared
796
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-3%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+50%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
679
A: 677 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,513 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.8843
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-273.0030
Linear regression intercept.
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