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Correlation
of values
-40%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
100
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate moves ~12 months before Building Permits
Watch Secured Overnight Financing Rate for an early read on Building Permits.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on values
95% CI
-55% → -22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
100 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
2,105
Normalized
799
2,105
Prepared
799
102
Aligned
100
100
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
100
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-12 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+16% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 12 months later. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 12 months ago?"
88 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+39%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
701
A: 699 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,105 raw → 102 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0047
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.7602
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-sofr_monthly_5y