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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
180
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~11 months before Overnight Reverse Repo
Watch Building Permits for an early read on Overnight Reverse Repo.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
180 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
799
3,317
Normalized
799
3,317
Prepared
799
182
Aligned
180
180
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
180
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+11 months
Correlation at this shift
+74%
+34% stronger than no-shift baseline
Overnight Reverse Repo shifted 11 months earlier. Reads: "Does Building Permits today line up with Overnight Reverse Repo 11 months from now?"
145 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+11 months
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
82 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
621
A: 619 / B: 2
Series A
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,317 raw → 182 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9203
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-880.4295
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-permit_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y