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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
497
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
497 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
15,162
Normalized
809
15,162
Prepared
809
499
Aligned
497
497
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
497
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
497 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
314
A: 312 / B: 2
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,162 raw → 499 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
66
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.5160
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-8.5638
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y