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Correlation
of values
+73%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
98
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Core PCE Price Index moves ~14 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Core PCE Price Index for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+73%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
98 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
2,061
Normalized
809
2,061
Prepared
809
100
Aligned
98
98
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
54%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does Core PCE Price Index today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 14 months from now?"
84 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+25%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
713
A: 711 / B: 2
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,061 raw → 100 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1556
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-15.0834
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-pcepilfe_fred-sofr_monthly_5y