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Correlation
of values
+91%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
281
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~83% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+91%
Based on values
95% CI
+89% → +93%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,225
Normalized
808
1,225
Prepared
808
283
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
82.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+96%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
263 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+91%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
98 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-61%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
529
A: 527 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
169449.4840
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-12780621.6741
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-pcepi_fred-walcl_monthly_5y