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Correlation
of values
+76%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~57% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
+73% → +79%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
808
Normalized
808
808
Prepared
808
808
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
57.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+76%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
808 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
25.4894
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-912.3986
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-pcepi_fred-totresns_monthly_5y