SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+74%
of values
In sync
59%
of periods
History
96
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~55% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
PCE Price Index moves ~14 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch PCE Price Index for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+74%
Based on values
95% CI
+64% → +82%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
96 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
2,018
Normalized
807
2,018
Prepared
807
98
Aligned
96
96
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
54.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
96
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
+83%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Secured Overnight Financing Rate shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with Secured Overnight Financing Rate 14 months from now?"
82 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
+83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-1%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
713
A: 711 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,018 raw → 98 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1551
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-15.0771
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-pcepi_fred-sofr_5y