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Correlation
of values
+40%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
235
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~18 months before US Economic Policy Uncertainty
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on US Economic Policy Uncertainty.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on values
95% CI
+29% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
235 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
235
15,225
Normalized
235
15,225
Prepared
235
501
Aligned
235
235
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
235
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Economic Policy Uncertainty shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with US Economic Policy Uncertainty 18 months from now?"
217 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
133 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
266
A: 0 / B: 266
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 235 raw → 235 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,225 raw → 501 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0211
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-133.6592
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y