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Correlation
of values
+38%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+38%
Based on values
95% CI
+27% → +49%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
232
605
Normalized
232
605
Prepared
232
605
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+38%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+62%
107 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+60%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
86 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
373
A: 0 / B: 373
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 605 raw → 605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.0372
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y