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Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
232
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~17 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-78% → -66%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
232 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
232
11,110
Normalized
232
11,110
Prepared
232
534
Aligned
232
232
Invalid removed
R²(i)
52.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
232
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
-86%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
10Y-3M Yield Spread shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with 10Y-3M Yield Spread 17 months from now?"
215 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
-86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
302
A: 0 / B: 302
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 232 raw → 232 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
82.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.3737
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y