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Correlation
of values
+95%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
119
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~90% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+95%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
233
2,512
Normalized
233
2,512
Prepared
233
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
90%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+95%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+95%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+84%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
44 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
116
A: 114 / B: 2
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.0631
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-11681.9198
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-pcec96_fred-sp500_monthly_5y