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Correlation
of values
+90%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
281
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~81% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before Personal Consumption
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+90%
Based on values
95% CI
+87% → +92%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
1,225
Normalized
808
1,225
Prepared
808
283
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
81.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+96%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
263 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+74%
103 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-87%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
529
A: 527 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
606.9539
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3863100.0190
Linear regression intercept.
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