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Correlation
of values
+90%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
282
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~81% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before Personal Consumption
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+90%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
1,229
Normalized
809
1,229
Prepared
809
284
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
81%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+95%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
264 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+72%
106 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-88%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
529
A: 527 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 284 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
601.2018
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3798445.7498
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-pce_fred-walcl_monthly_5y