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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
180
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~18 months before Personal Consumption
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Personal Consumption.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
+28% → +53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
180 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
3,317
Normalized
811
3,317
Prepared
811
182
Aligned
180
180
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
180
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+62%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Overnight Reverse Repo shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Personal Consumption today line up with Overnight Reverse Repo 18 months ago?"
138 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+62%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
91 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
633
A: 631 / B: 2
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,317 raw → 182 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0732
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-723.1583
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pce_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y