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Correlation
of values
-74%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
535
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~55% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-74%
Based on values
95% CI
-78% → -70%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
535 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
811
536
Normalized
811
536
Prepared
811
536
Aligned
535
535
Invalid removed
R²(i)
55%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
535
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-74%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
535 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
36 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
277
A: 276 / B: 1
Series A
Personal Consumption
PCE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 536 raw → 536 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.6870
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pce_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y