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Paychex Inc. (PAYX) vs USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
1,238
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-12% → -1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
11,375
Normalized
1,255
11,375
Prepared
1,255
11,375
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-7%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-7%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
147 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,154
A: 17 / B: 10137
Series A
PAYX
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
62
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0022
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_stock-payx_daily_5y