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Correlation
of values
+80%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
283
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+80%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
283 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,050
1,229
Normalized
1,050
1,229
Prepared
1,050
284
Aligned
283
283
Invalid removed
64%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
283
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+91%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
265 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+55%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+77%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
107 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
768
A: 767 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,229 raw → 284 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
221.7788
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-27505637.4623
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-payems_fred-walcl_monthly_5y