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Correlation
of values
+80%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
282
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~64% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Balance Sheet moves ~18 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch Fed Balance Sheet for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+80%
Based on values
95% CI
+75% → +84%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
1,225
Normalized
1,049
1,225
Prepared
1,049
283
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
R²(i)
63.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+91%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Balance Sheet shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with Fed Balance Sheet 18 months ago?"
264 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+80%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+57%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+76%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
768
A: 767 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
222.4874
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-27602597.3200
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-walcl_monthly_5y