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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
391
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-43% → -26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,052
391
Normalized
1,052
391
Prepared
1,052
391
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
391 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-99%
90 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
661
A: 661 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 391 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
22.3433
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-payems_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y