Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+49%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
605
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on values
95% CI
+43% → +55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
605 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
605
Normalized
1,049
605
Prepared
1,049
605
Aligned
605
605
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
605
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
605 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+86%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
444
A: 444 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 605 raw → 605 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.1942
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y