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Correlation
of values
-29%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
281
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~12 months before 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-39% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
5,862
Normalized
1,049
5,862
Prepared
1,049
282
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+12 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate shifted 12 months earlier. Reads: "Does Nonfarm Payrolls today line up with 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 12 months from now?"
269 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-23%
103 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
769
A: 768 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.6629
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-t5yifr_monthly_5y