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Correlation
of values
-44%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
533
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on values
95% CI
-51% → -37%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
533 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
11,110
Normalized
1,049
11,110
Prepared
1,049
534
Aligned
533
533
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
533
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
533 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
517
A: 516 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.2773
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y