SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+73%
of values
In sync
68%
of periods
History
119
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+73%
Based on values
95% CI
+63% → +80%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
119 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,047
2,515
Normalized
1,047
2,515
Prepared
1,047
121
Aligned
119
119
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
53.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
119
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
119 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-24%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
930
A: 928 / B: 2
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,515 raw → 121 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1654
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-21036.9471
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-payems_fred-sp500_5y