SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 66% of the time
Very strong positive
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
Retail Sales
RSAFS
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+98%) than when both rise (+60%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flaky
Correlation swings widely across time windows — careful using this as a point estimate.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
411 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Retail Sales at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+94%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+93% → +95%
Likely range
R²
88.8%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
65.5%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
411
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
411 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,047
411
Normalized
1,047
411
Prepared
1,047
411
Aligned
411
411
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
144 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+98%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
89 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
636
A: 636 / B: 0
Series A
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,047 raw → 1,047 prepared
Series B
RSAFS
FRED · 411 raw → 411 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
11.5863
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1185485.4893
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:payems|fred:rsafs|5Y
RSAFS
Retail Sales
Strongest positive