Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
66%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
413
These move in the same direction about 66% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~89% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
413 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,050
413
Normalized
1,050
413
Prepared
1,050
413
Aligned
413
413
Invalid removed
89%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
413
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
413 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+70%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
50 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 637 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
11.6597
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1194925.7441
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-payems_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y