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Correlation
of values
-73%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
808
Normalized
1,049
808
Prepared
1,049
808
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
53.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
808 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
241
A: 241 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Personal Savings Rate
PSAVERT
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
16.9263
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_fred-psavert_monthly_5y