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Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+33%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
60
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
OXY moves ~15 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch OXY for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+8% → +54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,051
Normalized
1,253
1,051
Prepared
61
1,051
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 15 months from now?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
25 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
31 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
992
A: 1 / B: 991
Series A
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
OXY
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,051 raw → 1,051 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0055
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0012
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-oxy_monthly_5y