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Correlation
of % moves
+59%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US GDP moves ~2 months before OXY
Watch US GDP for an early read on OXY.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+59%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+16% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
317
Normalized
1,254
317
Prepared
61
317
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+65%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US GDP shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) today line up with US GDP 2 months ago?"
16 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
340
A: 42 / B: 298
Series A
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
OXY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US GDP
GDP
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0227
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0152
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gdp_stock-oxy_monthly_5y