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Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-25
692
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
AI Analysis
The Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust are linked through shared exposure to economic cycles, where oil prices influence broader market sentiment and corporate profitability. With both series moving in the same direction 52% of the time, this moderate correlation suggests that shifts in oil prices can impact investor behavior in the broader market. Going forward, track oil price fluctuations, as they may signal trends in the S&P 500. Not investment advice.
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Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+24% → +37%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
692 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
692
1,253
Normalized
692
1,253
Prepared
692
1,253
Aligned
692
692
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
691
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
691 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+81%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
561
A: 0 / B: 561
Series A
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 692 raw → 692 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1647
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: stock-oilt-vs-stock-spy-daily
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Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.