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Retail Sales vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
33
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
OILT moves ~18 months before Retail Sales
Watch OILT for an early read on Retail Sales.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-10% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
33 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
416
692
Normalized
416
692
Prepared
416
34
Aligned
33
33
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
32
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-56%
+30% stronger than no-shift baseline
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) 18 months ago?"
14 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+58%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-42%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
384
A: 383 / B: 1
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 416 raw → 416 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 692 raw → 34 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.2293
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0018
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-oilt_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.