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PPI: All Commodities vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+56%
In sync
of periods
75%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
33
These move in the same direction about 75% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
75%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+26% → +76%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
33 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,364
691
Normalized
1,364
691
Prepared
1,364
34
Aligned
33
33
Invalid removed
R²(i)
31%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
32
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+56%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
32 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-13%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,332
A: 1331 / B: 1
Series A
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,364 raw → 1,364 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 691 raw → 34 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.2560
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0079
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-oilt_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.