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US Core CPI vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
+28%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
32
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
US Core CPI moves ~10 months before OILT
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on OILT.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-9% → +58%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
32 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
835
690
Normalized
835
690
Prepared
835
34
Aligned
32
32
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
30
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -11 to 11 months.
Selected shift
+10 months
Correlation at this shift
+54%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) shifted 10 months earlier. Reads: "Does US Core CPI today line up with Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT) 10 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+10 months
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
805
A: 803 / B: 2
Series A
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 835 raw → 835 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 690 raw → 34 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
16.6464
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0330
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-oilt_monthly_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.