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HY Bond Spread vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-21
688
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-35% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
688 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
785
690
Normalized
785
690
Prepared
785
690
Aligned
688
688
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
687
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
687 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
99
A: 97 / B: 2
Series A
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 785 raw → 785 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 690 raw → 690 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2423
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-oilt_daily_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.