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IG Bond Spread vs Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
Correlation
of % moves
-18%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-21
687
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-26% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
687 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
784
693
Normalized
784
693
Prepared
784
693
Aligned
687
687
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
686
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-18%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
686 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
165 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
103
A: 97 / B: 6
Series A
IG Bond Spread
BAMLC0A0CM
FRED · 784 raw → 784 prepared
Series B
Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF (OILT)
OILT
Stock · 693 raw → 693 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2243
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlc0a0cm_stock-oilt_daily_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.