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Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA) vs Real Disposable Income
Correlation
of % moves
+37%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real Disposable Income moves ~2 months before NTRA
Watch Real Disposable Income for an early read on NTRA.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+12% → +58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
60
807
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-2 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real Disposable Income shifted 2 months later. Reads: "Does Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA) today line up with Real Disposable Income 2 months ago?"
55 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-2 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+48%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
751
A: 2 / B: 749
Series A
Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA)
NTRA
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Real Disposable Income
DSPIC96
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0172
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0011
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dspic96_stock-ntra_monthly_5y