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Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA) vs Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-38%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-02
57
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
NTRA moves ~17 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch NTRA for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
57 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
470
Normalized
1,254
470
Prepared
60
470
Aligned
57
57
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA) today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 17 months from now?"
39 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
416
A: 3 / B: 413
Series A
Natera, Inc. Common Stock (NTRA)
NTRA
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 470 raw → 470 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0249
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_stock-ntra_monthly_5y