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Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) vs Total Consumer Credit
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
58
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~13 months before NOC
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on NOC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+0% → +49%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
1,002
Normalized
1,253
1,002
Prepared
61
1,002
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Consumer Credit shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) today line up with Total Consumer Credit 13 months ago?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
947
A: 3 / B: 944
Series A
Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)
NOC
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,002 raw → 1,002 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0201
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-totalsl_stock-noc_monthly_5y