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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
1,226
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,226 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,881
2,895
Normalized
5,881
2,895
Prepared
1,228
2,895
Aligned
1,226
1,226
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
23%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,226
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,226 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,671
A: 2 / B: 1669
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 1,228 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,895 raw → 2,895 prepared
Sign agreement
10.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6709
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0562
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-nfci_fred-t10yie_weekly_5y