Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
664
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,891
1,360
Normalized
2,891
1,360
Prepared
665
1,360
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
664 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
697
A: 1 / B: 696
Series A
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,891 raw → 665 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
29.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-24.2861
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
141.0418
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-nfci_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y